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Coal and iron ore are expected to be the cornerstone of the massive increase.
“Now the commodities mainly driving that are the minerals and energy commodities. We’re expecting their earnings to increase by 48 per cent to $178 billion,” said ABARE’s John Hogan.
“In mineral prices, as we’re aware of, there have been increases of around 85 per cent with respect to iron ore. We’re likely to see a doubling of prices for metallurgical coal and an increase of 127 per cent for thermal coal.
“Other commodities that are also increasing are crude oil, up around 32 per cent, and prices for alumina and aluminium are also increasing by around 11 to 14 per cent.
“LNG is certainly playing a more significant part. We’re likely to see volumes of LNG increase by 15 per cent and the value of exports increase by 67 per cent. We don’t have prices specifically for LNG but LNG prices are tied to crude oil prices so with the significant rise in crude oil prices we’d expect to see a significant rise in LNG prices as well,” Mr Hogan said.
The value of exports from farm products is also tipped to rise by 12 per cent to $30.24 million, providing normal seasonal conditions prevail, with increased earnings forecast for wheat, barley, canola, pulses, grain sorghum, cotton, sugar and wine.
“We certainly have, within our forecast, assumed we will see some more average sort of seasonal conditions,” Mr Hogan said.
“We’re expecting, say for example, our crops to play a more significant role in the coming year.
“We’re expecting, say for example the total winter crop production to be up around 65 per cent on last year’s drought affected crop, up to around 37 million tonnes.
“Wheat is the main crop in there. We’re expecting to see wheat production increase from around 12 million tonnes to 23.8 million tonnes, so with extra cropping we’d expect to see that flow through to extra export revenue.”
“Now the commodities mainly driving that are the minerals and energy commodities. We’re expecting their earnings to increase by 48 per cent to $178 billion,” said ABARE’s John Hogan.
“In mineral prices, as we’re aware of, there have been increases of around 85 per cent with respect to iron ore. We’re likely to see a doubling of prices for metallurgical coal and an increase of 127 per cent for thermal coal.
“Other commodities that are also increasing are crude oil, up around 32 per cent, and prices for alumina and aluminium are also increasing by around 11 to 14 per cent.
“LNG is certainly playing a more significant part. We’re likely to see volumes of LNG increase by 15 per cent and the value of exports increase by 67 per cent. We don’t have prices specifically for LNG but LNG prices are tied to crude oil prices so with the significant rise in crude oil prices we’d expect to see a significant rise in LNG prices as well,” Mr Hogan said.
The value of exports from farm products is also tipped to rise by 12 per cent to $30.24 million, providing normal seasonal conditions prevail, with increased earnings forecast for wheat, barley, canola, pulses, grain sorghum, cotton, sugar and wine.
“We certainly have, within our forecast, assumed we will see some more average sort of seasonal conditions,” Mr Hogan said.
“We’re expecting, say for example, our crops to play a more significant role in the coming year.
“We’re expecting, say for example the total winter crop production to be up around 65 per cent on last year’s drought affected crop, up to around 37 million tonnes.
“Wheat is the main crop in there. We’re expecting to see wheat production increase from around 12 million tonnes to 23.8 million tonnes, so with extra cropping we’d expect to see that flow through to extra export revenue.”
